Market State ( Main Post )

We don’t know if the bottom was put in today, but we have a plan either way.

All we know is that we’re really on Day 1 today.

First, we need to regain the 8-day moving average on the index, then the 21-day moving average. Then we wait for a 4-day move off the low. Today was Day 1. After that, we don’t want to see any disruption, and we said this last week. So, any rally that happened last week was completely dumped.

Long way to go. We’re nowhere near there yet.

What happened today?

After the ugly close last week, today marked the end of the quarter.

There’s a lot of uncertainty going into April 2nd because of tariffs, and this is not something the market wants to see.

Coming into today, we got that gap down, but within 15 minutes we put in the low, and we rallied the rest of the day with higher highs and higher lows.

It could be quarter-end window dressing, but we don’t know yet.

We’re looking for some leaders now — a lot of them are still under the 21-day moving average.

QQQ:
One pattern we pay attention to is an undercut followed by a reclaim of a certain level. Today was a shakeout-type move. We closed right where we closed on Friday.

S&P 500:
It was a trend-up day — we closed above Friday’s close. I’m watching the 5670 +/- level as a possible resistance.

VIX:
Gapped higher.

Gold:
Third gap-up high and very extended. We’ve been trailing this one using the 8-day moving average with a trailing stop.

Silver:
Huge short interest. There’s a lot of talk on Reddit about a potential short squeeze.

BTC:
Continues to show weakness, trading under the declining 21-day moving average. But it didn’t undercut the lows from a few weeks back.

Fear & Greed Index:
Currently at 21 — extreme fear.

News to Watch:
Jobs report on Friday.

Summary:
Gap down today, but bulls stepped in.

I’m watching a couple of stocks holding up pretty well:
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) — breaking out from a double bottom.