Citi Lifts Gold Forecast to $3,500 Amid Tariff Tensions and Geopolitical Risk

Citi has raised its short-term gold price target to $3,500 per ounce, up from its previous estimate of $3,300, driven by rising geopolitical risks and renewed tariff threats. In a note released Sunday, the bank said it expects gold to trade in a range between $3,100 and $3,500 in the near term.

Despite the upward revision, Citi remains cautious on gold’s long-term trajectory. The bank highlights two key risks: the potential unwinding of growth-related equity pressures as U.S. midterm elections approach and interest rates are cut, and the fact that household gold ownership is now at a 50-year high.

Citi’s targets for platinum and palladium remain unchanged at $1,050 and $900 per ounce, respectively. The recent rally in platinum is seen as driven by headlines, while palladium's move is viewed as an opportunity for producer hedging and speculative activity.

The updated gold forecast comes after fresh U.S. tariff threats targeting the European Union, which have now been delayed by one month following recent developments over the weekend. Citi originally raised its $3,500 target in April 2025, a level that was briefly surpassed on April 22 amid growing concerns over Federal Reserve independence.

With gold demand at historic highs—estimated at roughly 0.5% of global GDP—the bank

expects continued range-bound trading in the second half of 2025, supported by investment

uncertainty and resilient jewelry demand in key markets like India and China.