The New Equation: What MBS’s US Visit Means for Oil, AI, and Security

The diplomatic slate appears to have been wiped clean. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, arrived in the U.S. this week for high-stakes talks with U.S. President Donald Trump, marking his first trip since the 2018 killing of Saudi critic Jamal Khashoggi an event U.S. intelligence determined MBS approved. More than seven years later, the world’s largest economy and the top oil producer are eager to move forward, prioritizing future deals over past controversies.

The Trade-Offs and the $600 Billion Pledge

President Trump is looking to capitalize on a $600 billion Saudi investment pledge made during his last visit to the kingdom. In return, the Saudi leader is seeking two main assets: security guarantees and access to cutting-edge technology.

The U.S. has already confirmed a significant shift is underway: President Trump announced plans to approve the sale of advanced F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia. Such a sale would profoundly alter the military balance in the Middle East and challenge Washington's long-standing commitment to maintaining Israel's "qualitative military edge." As one analyst noted, the Khashoggi killing is a "page that has been turned" by both nations.

The Defense Dilemma: Israel and Normalization

The long-standing security-for-oil arrangement between the two countries was shaken after Washington failed to respond to an Iranian attack on Saudi oil installations in 2019. Now, Riyadh wants a robust, Congressional-ratified defense pact to assure its safety amid regional turmoil.

However, Washington has conditioned this full defense pact on the kingdom normalizing ties with Israel. Riyadh, in turn, has tied normalization to a firm commitment from the Israeli government to Palestinian statehood a measure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has staunchly opposed.

The likely diplomatic outcome, as summarized by a Western diplomat, is a compromise: "Trump wants normalization and Saudi wants a full defense pact, but the circumstances don’t allow. In the end, both sides will likely get less than they want." Analysts anticipate an outcome in the form of a Presidential executive order similar to a recent pact signed with Qatar that would mandate immediate consultation in the event of a threat, rather than an ironclad commitment to active military defense.

The Pivot to Nuclear and AI

Beyond defense, the talks are fundamentally about the Saudi leadership’s ambitious Vision 2030 plan to diversify its economy. To compete with regional rivals like the UAE, Saudi Arabia is pressing hard for agreements in artificial intelligence and civilian nuclear energy.

Securing approval to acquire advanced computer chips is critical to Riyadh’s plan to become a central hub for global AI. Just as the UAE secured a multibillion-dollar data center deal for access to high-end chips in June, MBS is looking for a similar win to strengthen the kingdom’s competitive position.

In the nuclear arena, MBS wants to strike a deal that would unlock access to U.S. nuclear technology and security guarantees. This would put Saudi Arabia on par with the UAE’s existing program and its traditional foe, Iran. Progress has been stalled because the Saudis have resisted a U.S. stipulation that would bar them from enriching uranium or reprocessing spent fuel two potential paths to creating nuclear weapons. Despite this difficulty, some negotiators still expect an agreement or at least a public statement confirming substantial progress on the nuclear front.